Deadline looms for low carbon economies
19 October 2009
The world must initiate a low carbon industrial revolution by 2014 or runaway climate change will become almost inevitable, according to a new analysis from WWF.
The report, prepared for WWF by Climate Risk, is the first to set out a timetable outlining the action required by industry in order to limit the world’s carbon emissions and keep global temperature rise to below 2˚C.
Climate Solutions 2 (CS2) has showed that, beyond 2014, the feasible upper limits of industrial growth rates will make it impossible for market economies to lower emissions enough to limit the worst impacts of climate change.
“Clean industry sectors can only expand so far, so quickly. If we wait until later than 2014 to begin aggressively tackling the problem, we will have left it too late to ensure that all the low-carbon solutions required are ready to roll out at the scale needed if we intend to keep within the world's remaining carbon budget,” said Keith Allott, Head of Climate Change at WWF-UK. "With the Major Economies Forum taking place in London this weekend, this report is a compelling reminder of the scale of effort and the speed of action needed if we're going to make the global transition towards low and zero carbon economies before it’s too late."
According to the report, this transition requires simultaneous action on greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors. It warns that too much reliance on market mechanisms, such as carbon trading, would create serious problems, as these approaches can encourage a step by step deployment of low-carbon solutions. The report calls for strong long-term investment frameworks to support emerging technologies, backed up by policies ranging from energy efficiency standards to feed-in tariffs for renewable energy and an end to subsidies for the use of dirty fossil fuels.
Renewable energy generation, carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency, sustainable low-carbon agriculture and sustainable forestry should be used to lead the transformation to a low carbon economy. Renewable energies have the potential to become competitive with fossil fuels between 2013 and 2025 – a highly conservative estimate based on just 2% annual rises in fossil fuel prices and with no price put on carbon.
"The wind, the sea and the sun will cost the same today, tomorrow and into the future, unlike coal,” said Stephan Singer, Director of Energy Policy at WWF International. “They can be the basis for a cleaner world where energy supplies are more secure and where we have the best chance of preventing dramatic climate changes that could endanger our cities, our food supplies and the natural environment that we have always depended on."
Climate Solutions 2 calculates that the extra worldwide investment – from a business as usual baseline trajectory - is expected to be US$17 trillion up to 2050 – or less than 15% of the funds currently managed by institutional investors. The returns on that investment are expected to flow back into investor’s pockets from 2027 and in some cases even earlier. For renewable technologies only, the cumulative investment to 2050 worldwide will total US$7 trillion, but it is expected generate returns to investors of around six times as much.
"Climate Solutions 2 draws a line in the sand that we cannot cross,” said Keith Allott. “It highlights the fact that we have reached a pivotal moment – we need a complete industrial shift towards a low carbon future and it must begin with a fair and binding global deal on climate change, agreed in Copenhagen this December.”
Countries not pursuing carbon abatement options simultaneously in every sector tend to develop least-cost industries first and only develop other low carbon industries as they become affordable. Modelling and historical records agree that this kind of sequential development in industry - normally resulting from undue reliance on a single mechanism such as a rising carbon price - will make it impossible to meet emissions targets on time. Industries that come online later will have to grow considerably faster because of the delays in start-up and as a result will be hit harder by constraints on resources, labour and expertise.
*SPOKESPEOPLE AVAILABLE ON REQUEST*
For further information or a copy of the report please call:
Benjamin Ward, Head of Press, WWF-UK: 07837 134 193
Jo Sargent, Senior Press Officer, WF-UK: 07867 697 519
